“Billions at risk” from climate change

GreenPrices Weekly, 6 April 2007 – For the first time, the global scientific community confirmed that climate change is happening, both on a global and on a regional level. “Even if we agree on mitigation of climate change, we have to adapt to address impacts of warming already happening,” said Martin Parry, co-chair of the second Working Group contributing to this year’s assessment of climate change by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Billions of people are at risk”.

During a press conference, the Second Working Group (WGII), focusing on the impacts of climate change and adaptation to those consequences, presented its findings. “Global warming is no longer a matter of waving with models. In 29,000 datasets we have found that over 90% of them are into the direction of global warming”, Parry confirmed.

He described some key impacts of the continuous increase of the mean global temperature (see figure). The most prominent risks are decreasing water availability in certain regions, increasing precipitation in other regions, increasing numbers of species at risk from extinction, loss of productivity in food production, damage from floods and storms and increased morbidity from disease and heat waves.

The vulnerability of people is increased by other existing problems, like poverty. Asia and Africa were mentioned as especially vulnerable areas. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions can avoid or delay adverse impacts, which are especially increased beyond a 2° C increase of the mean global temperature.

The WGII report is a result of a co-operation of 300 scientists. The comprehensive report includes a Summary for Policy Makers that has been commented on twice by representatives from countries all over the world to reach a consensus opinion. The report has been finalised in the last five days in Brussels. “It took us one and a half day to design the figure with the key impacts”, Martin Parry said, illustrating the complex process.

Next month, the Third Working Group (WGIII) of the IPCC will publish the assessment of mitigation measures all over the world. In this report recommendations are to be expected about how much reduction of greenhouse gas emissions will be needed to avoid far-reaching impacts, what the related costs are and what technologies and policies will be required.

copyright © Jos Wassink, 2007